Prospects for properties in most developed markets may have turned negative for
the first time in four years as the world credit crunch begins to take effect, but
tenant demand is still rising in emerging markets. So says a study by the United
Kingdombased Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS).
Its Global Commercial Property Survey for the first quarter of this year covering
office, retail and industrial properties painted a bleak picture for Australasia,
North America and developed Asia, with commercial construction weakening and capital
values falling at almost double the pace of Western Europe.
In contrast, RICS found that Africa and the Middle East are still booming and will
continue to buck the trend with commercial projects in places such as Dubai and
Doha staying robust.
Tenant demand is also strong in emerging European markets, it said, albeit on a
more muted note as multinational corporations come to terms with expansion during
tougher economic times while investors seem less confident of the potential of sustained
high returns.
RICS senior economist Oliver Gilmartin said what started in the developed world
has spilt over to lower markets, causing yields in some emerging European cities
to be on par with their developed brethrens.
Given the situation, he said it’s not surprising investors previously bullish on
budding prospects have turned cautious as on a relative valuation basis, their risk-to-return
levels have diminished.
On a brighter note, Gilmartin said the worst may be over for the Western European
investment market which appears to be leading the correction in global property.